The consultation on the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate closes today, with options including lower electric car sales targets. Autotrader has called for more flexibility in the annual targets.
The consultation ends at 11:59 p.m. on October 23. The government plans to complete the review by early 2027, though an exact announcement date remains unconfirmed.
Lower targets among options
The government is weighing whether to scale back the 2030 goal for zero-emission vehicle sales, potentially lowering it from 80% to 70%, 60%, or even 50%, while adjusting yearly benchmarks starting in 2027. Toyota and the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) have both pushed for a 50% threshold.
Another option would maintain existing targets but extend compliance flexibilities, such as credit banking, borrowing, and CO₂ conversion, to 2034. Keeping current arrangements is also under consideration.
The government has emphasized that any changes will not affect its commitment to phase out new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and mandate all new cars and vans as zero emission by 2035.
Sales challenge acknowledged
According to Department for Transport (DfT) projections, the UK would need to see electric vehicle purchases expand by roughly 31% each year from 2025 to 2030 to fulfill existing obligations, up from the 21% annual rise observed between 2022 and 2025.
This projection assumes no extra compliance tools are used in 2030. The consultation highlights that even with current flexibilities, the difference between actual zero-emission sales and required targets could become harder to bridge over time.
Autotrader advocates for keeping the 2030 and 2035 phase-out timelines intact to secure investor confidence, but argues that intermediate annual targets should allow more adaptability.
The company points out that consumer behavior is heavily influenced by fuel costs and global political shifts, making rapid annual target increases particularly difficult to sustain.
Bex Kennett, Autotrader’s head of new cars, emphasized: ‘Maintaining clear phase-out deadlines for 2030 and 2035 is essential for industry planning, yet the steep annual increases needed in between will grow harder to achieve given today’s economic and geopolitical conditions.’
Introducing practical adjustments to the short-term Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate path would help manufacturers stay aligned with goals while still cutting road transport emissions meaningfully.
Electric cars exceed a third of enquiries
In October, electric vehicles made up 33.8% of all new car inquiries on Autotrader, marking the first time they’ve surpassed one-third of total interest.
BMW led with 9.4% of electric car enquiries, followed by BYD at 6.2%, Hyundai at 5.8%, and Kia at 5.6%.
The BMW iX3 was the most sought-after electric model, capturing 4.7% of EV inquiries, followed by the Renault 5 E-Tech at 4.4% and the Cupra Raval at 3.8%.
Autotrader noted that these figures reflect expanded model choice across premium manufacturers, established volume brands, and new entrants. The enquiry figures measure platform activity, not completed sales or registrations.
Across all fuel types, traffic to Autotrader’s new car platform was stable year-on-year in October, following September’s 12% rise in UK new car registrations.
New car listings increased by 13% compared to the previous year, while average advertised discounts remained above 10%. Discounts eased slightly from September to 10.2% across all fuel types and 10.1% for electric cars.
The government’s consultation also highlights the cost of stimulating EV demand. DfT estimates the additional discounting cost for electric cars averaged around £2,800 per vehicle in 2025, showing financial pressure on manufacturers to meet rising targets.
Autotrader observed that competition from new entrants is prompting established manufacturers to offer more competitive pricing and deals.
BMW led overall new car enquiries with 9.8%, followed by Land Rover at 7.9% and Volkswagen at 6.7%. Jaecoo and Chery accounted for 5.2% and 4%, respectively.
The platform maintained its upgraded forecast of 2.21 million UK new car registrations in 2026, representing 9.5% annual growth.
Kennett noted that consumer engagement following September’s plate change indicates momentum heading into the final months of the year, supported by greater choice and competitive offers.
Automotive Management Live Event Details
Bex Kennett, Autotrader’s head of new cars, will participate in a panel discussion at Automotive Management Live on November 11. The panel will focus on the new car market and feature other industry professionals, including Nahide Crisp, Denis Golden, and Carly Keeler.