New light commercial vehicle (LCV) registrations in August were down 49% month-on-month, according to the latest report from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The decline aligns with the usual seasonal dip that occurs during the peak holiday period, and it also precedes the rollout of the new September registration plate, which historically shifts registration activity.
When the August 2025 period is taken as a comparison, registrations were up 80 units, showing a modest rebound from the previous year. Despite the overall drop, used LCV values have remained steady, with only minor guide price adjustments necessary. Those adjustments affected a relatively small number of models, meaning that most vehicles continued to trade at prices close to their prior levels. The stability in used-vehicle pricing suggests that buyers are not reacting dramatically to short-term market fluctuations.
Market Conditions
Feedback from industry contacts suggests that market conditions have remained relatively stable, with little overall movement in used market prices. Retail demand for used LCVs stayed resilient despite the seasonal slowdown that typically accompanies late summer, and dealers reported that inventory turnover remained within expected ranges.
The wholesale market showed little sign of the traditional lull, with strong attendance and bidding activity at both physical and online auctions. Both indoor venues and digital platforms reported high participation levels. Of particular note is the renewed interest in minibuses, with evidence emerging of an upward movement in market prices for those specific body styles.
While damaged stock continues to present challenges to auctioneers and vendors alike, fewer concerns have been raised over the past month and there have been reports of such stock selling more easily.
Trade Sales
Auction officials report that trade buyers are placing increasing importance on documented evidence that servicing has been completed in line with the manufacturer’s recommendations. This focus is especially relevant for vehicles that may still carry an unexpired portion of the manufacturer’s warranty, as proof of proper maintenance can preserve warranty coverage and resale value. The emphasis on service records reflects a broader trend toward greater transparency in trade transactions.
Trade buyers are cautious about vehicles fitted with wet timing belts, due to reports of catastrophic damage to engines when such belts fail and the high cost of scheduled belt replacement.
Trade sales of battery electric (BEV) LCVs have increased over the past five years, with a clear shift in buyer behaviour toward BEV LCVs. What was once a market dominated by a small number of buyers has developed into one supported by a broader and more diverse buyer base. This diversification is evident in the growing number of fleet operators and independent dealers who now include electric models in their portfolios.
Mileage Depreciation Adjustments and BEV Valuation Developments
August’s decline in new LCV registrations was expected, according to Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI. Adjustments to mileage depreciation rates now lower guide values beyond the 80,000-mile threshold. This change allows vendors to set realistic reserve prices, narrowing the gap between seller expectations and buyer demand. Publishing guide values for battery-electric LCVs was difficult early on, and limited data still hinders some sectors. As more BEV models reach the used market, valuation foundations have strengthened and confidence in guide values has grown.
Guide Price Changes
Guide price adjustments for the October edition were –0.7% at the three-year/60,000-mile benchmark and –0.7% overall, reflecting relatively stable current market conditions. The methodology behind those figures involves averaging transaction data across a wide range of sources, which helps to smooth out short-term volatility. The charts below highlight the sharp fluctuations in guide price movements between 2020 and 2026, illustrating the broader market narrative.
Prices peaked in 2020 and 2021 during the height of the pandemic, before declining to more sustainable levels by late 2023. The cumulative downward movement so far in 2026 is –9.6%, indicating that the market has continued to adjust after the earlier surge.
Analysis of guide price performance of higher mileage vehicles shows that whilst the research data volume drops off dramatically at the higher mileage bands, only a relatively low number of sales records fall outside acceptable parameters. This pattern suggests that high-mileage units still command reasonable values, even though fewer of them are recorded in the dataset.
Anecdotal evidence from trade contacts suggests that the guide values are more accurate than ever at the higher mileage points.